Igor Zaytsev's blog

So, the Nord Stream I and II there taken out of commission by someone. The mainstream media doesn’t point fingers — they are probably in shock and don’t have clear instructions from their patrons on how to spin that to the public. In the lack of the mainstream narrative, the alternative media is blaming the US.

Let’s assume it was the US. I won’t speak about economic implications, since many people smarter than me already did it. I will also not speak about the possibility it was intended to disrupt the secret EU-Russia ceasefire negotiations. As much as I hope there are none, it does seem very much like something Putin would do. In that case, I’m glad for the sabotage, and hope it will achieve this specific goal.

But what I want to examine is the implications on the US-EU relationship, specifically their military alliance. If Americans did it, or enabled someone else to do it, Europeans would find out eventually (if they don’t know already). And when they do, they’ll have a new understanding of their position in the American World Order — not more frenemies, that support each other to the outside, but are economic and political rivals on the inside. But competitors who are actively sabotaging each-other with military means.

If the core American ideology behind their international politics is the “zero sum game”, then Europeans are only differing from Russia and China in the place on the American checklist. They can’t control the US foreign policies, and they can’t rely on US protection.

There is a possibility that the EU leadership was given the heads-up, or even gave their concession for this act. But if they did, it seems they didn’t prepare any narrative or spin to present it to the public in a beneficial way. Instead, they seem shocked. Which leads me to believe they didn’t know or approved.

If so, the next logical step for the EU is reevaluating their alliance with the US in the NATO format. They gave the US Navy the carte blanche to do in their territorial waters whatever, assuming it will only be directed against Russia. Now that they themselves became a target, the NATO alliance suddenly will seem like a burden at the very least.

As I’ve already talked about, the only real reason EU needs US is for its MAD (mutually assured destruction) nuclear deterrence forces. Without the UK, only France possesses its own nuclear capabilities. Maybe this is the reason US is so keen on creating the illusion of the Russian nuclear threat to the Europe — to remind Europeans they can’t leave “la Familia” no matter what. And if Russia won’t nuke Europe, maybe someone else will. That wouldn’t be much escalation after blowing the pipelines, the lifeline of the German industry.

Assuming Europeans are smart enough to understand that Russia doesn’t have anything to win by nuking the EU, but only stands to lose its major export destination, and assuming they know Putin has a fetish for Europe in general and Germany in particular, they actually can disregard such a threat. If they do, then the only question which remains is: “is the NATO worth it?”. After the sabotage of the Nord Stream, both I and II, the most obvious answer is: no. Especially given the public pressure in Europe to restore the energy supplies and save the sinking EU economy.

Jacob Dreizin wrote that US is playing chess. That may be, but they play against themselves. Schemes only work for some time — after a while they produce an opposite effect. Evil never wins in the long run, because evil is ultimately destructive not only to the outside, but also to itself. Whomever sabotaged the pipelines, is at high risk of creating a long-lasting rift between itself and Europe. If it indeed was the US, then the next (historically speaking) logical step would be for NATO-OTAN to become just NATO, or even ASTO — Anglo-Saxon Treaty Organization.

P.S.

Putin has shown his total incompetence in running a government. There is still almost no criticism of him personally, except for the usual NGO- and foreign-run media. It seems fixing the problems of corrupt system is too much to ask of him, even in the time of national emergency. Instead, he would probably prefer to sign some kind of Treaty of Versailles. Easy to guess how it will end: popular support for Putin will plunge, and more aggressive elements will gain support instead to replace him (maybe even by force). Since Putin have strengthen the “Vertical of Power”, the new leaders will have almost no counterbalances in place to check their rule. No wonder people who have options (including bad options) are fleeing Russia — distrust in Putin’s government, its infuriating cowardly silence regarding the true state of the war, detachment from domestic reality and the disastrous management of the military campaign (which resulted in middle-age office workers with no previous military service to be mobilized, the volunteers with combat experience to be turned down, and there is no training or equipment ready for many of new recruits) — all this resulted in uncontrolled panic. Even the ones who didn’t receive a mobilization notice, fear that next waves of mobilization will follow, and the borders will be closed for able men to leave Russia. Bravo! Whatever the West tried to do to Russia and failed miserably, Putin is doing by himself.