Igor Zaytsev's blog

Russian Army conducted another wave of deep-rear strikes in UA territory. This time electricity-generating turbines of many power plants were hit, together with the usual 300kv class transformers. After many long months of mostly pointless “sparing” strikes on transformers only, someone in the Russian MoD finally made the obvious choice of targeting the power stations themselves. Yet, seemingly because of the cruise missiles shortages, the effects are very limited. The Iranian Mercedes priced junk-drones don’t carry large enough warheads (50 kg only) to penetrate the building and destroy the turbines. Instead, at best only one or two turbines were damaged or affected in each targeted power plant. The much more capable Soviet/Russian made missiles were instead wasted on power distribution substations and other nonsense.

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Russian Army made an exercise in diversion operation by bombing the Snake Island and yet again blowing up the bridge over Zatoka in Odessa region. Since those two are only critical for maritime assault operation in Odessa region, and since Russia obviously can’t conduct any landing operations there (without risking a huge disaster), it is nothing more than an attempt to make UA to pull some of its forces into Odessa.

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The attack on the Zatoka bridge was evidently done using some kind of naval suicide drone. Almost certainly this is an Iranian made drone. In the Iranian drones news, an information about new factory intended specifically for licensed assembly of Iranian drones was published in the Western media. According to it, the deal is valued $1B for the production of 6,000 drones. Which means a per unit cost of $167,000. What even more embarrassing, is that according to publicized information, Russia will develop new engines and maybe warheads for those drones. In practical terms it means a joint venture company with Iran, where Russia will transfer its superior aerospace know-how to Iran, to be used by Iran and its proxies and clients. It is quite possible the long-lasting effect of this cooperation will be a technological and military jump in capabilities. The one to feel this the most will probably be Israel.

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The revolutionary sentiments in Russia are brewing. While ignored by the ruling class, they start to seep into the public consciousness little by little. Since there is no viable alternative to the current regime, the situation might become dangerous by letting the worst elements and ideologies to surface.

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Russian large winter offensive is still nowhere to be seen. The activation of pressure on the south-eastern front was met with inflow of Ukrainian reserves. There is no decisive force seen that could overturn the mostly static situation. The Russian problems are threefold: deficit of military hardware, equipment and ammunition, the inability to effectively train mobilized reserves, and the incompetence and/or corruption of the top military commanders. Then the reservists were used, it often resulted in abysmal failures. The best performing forces which include Wagner professional soldiers, paratroopers, special forces, marines etc., are being grinded in frontal assaults on fortified enemy positions. The “grind” that the Russian MoD is talking about in regard to the Ukrainian forces is actually affected both sides. And unlike the Russian side, the UA is continuing its relentless and increasingly ruthless forced conscription practice.

If the Russian MoD will lose its time window for winter offensive, a larger Ukrainian spring offensive will follow, resulting in great numbers of casualties on both sides, and farther destabilizing the political structure of both countries. Any new waves of mobilizations in Russia will only make situation worse. In order to prevent this scenario, president Rasputin might try to find a refuge in signing bad deals with the West, which would be the end of him, of course.